Journals
  Publication Years
  Keywords
Search within results Open Search
Please wait a minute...
For Selected: Toggle Thumbnails
Empty-nest Elderly Households in China: Trends and Patterns
Tao Tao, Jin Guangzhao, Guo Yalong
Population Research    2023, 47 (1): 58-71.  
Abstract2457)      PDF (12724KB)(670)       Save
Drawing upon data from 2000, 2010 and 2020 population censuses, this study examines trends and patterns of the empty-nest elderly households in China. The level of empty-nest elderly households has been increasing both in urban and rural areas over the last 20 years, and has increased in all China's provinces over the past decade. In 2020, empty-nest elderly population is estimated approximately to be 0.15 billion, of which 7.7 million are the oldest old living alone. The oldest old and female elderly are more likely to live alone. Nearly 70% of the living-alone elderly are widowed, and nearly 10% are still unmarried. Empty-nest elderly live mainly on family support, social security, and labor income. Their health conditions are generally good, but a small proportion are disabled. Few living-alone elderly have caregivers to provide care for them, and even for those disabled only 19.86% receive such care. Policy implications are discussed.
Related Articles | Metrics
A Comparison of Two Kinds of Negative Population Growth: Connotation, Demographic Characteristics, and Economic Impacts
Tao Tao, Jin Guangzhao, Guo Yalong
Population Research    2021, 45 (6): 14-28.  
Abstract1121)      PDF (14991KB)(292)       Save
Different from the negative population growth caused by exogenous events in the past, the endogenous negative population growth driven by prolonged life expectancy and long term low fertility will become a new important population phenomenon in the future. Demographically speaking, compared with exogenous negative population growth, the endogenous one tends to accumulate long term negative population growth momentum. Once it happens, it lasts longer, is accompanied by population ageing, and is more difficult to convert back to positive growth. For the economic impacts, both of these two kinds of negative population growth have aggregate effect, but the endogenous negative population growth shows a clearer structural effect, a more stable expectation effect, and a long-swing effect which differs from the exogenous one. The looming endogenous negative population growth is not necessarily negative, but may have positive effects. The focus is how to seize the response window period and give full play to the positive effects on the basis of eliminating the negative effects of negative population growth.
Related Articles | Metrics
Negative Population Growth in the World: Characteristics, Trends, and Responses
Tao Tao,Jin Guangzhao,Zhang Xianling
Population Research    2020, 44 (4): 46-61.  
Abstract934)      PDF (2874KB)(615)       Save
Using the WPP2019 data, this article investigates negative population growth across the world during 1950-2018, and compares negative population growth between China and typical countries with identical origin point model. 107 countries (regions) in the world experienced negative population growth in 1950-2018, of which 20 were caused by the inherent mechanism of population. These 20 countries are all from Europe except Japan, and have experienced 19-year longest negative growth duration on average, and confront low fertility and population ageing. Compared to Germany, Hungary, and Russia, negative population growth occurs later in Japan and China, exhibiting a pattern of rapid development, long-term acceleration and weak resilience. In addition, the working-age population decrease earlier than the total population in Japan and China, ageing is severer, and the proportions of children aged 0-14 are lower. It is of growing significance to explore the new rules of population development, policy responses and long-term planning as soon as possible in the negative population growth era.
Related Articles | Metrics
Trends and Patterns of Negative Population Growth in China
Zhang Xianling,Zhai Zhenwu,Tao Tao
Population Research    2020, 44 (3): 3-20.  
Abstract1705)      PDF (1308KB)(606)       Save
For thousands of years, the Chinese population has approximately been following exponential growth, with occasionally short-term exogenous decrease. In the 1990s, the intrinsic rate of natural increase turned negative, indicating the accumulation of negative population growth momentum. One quarter of prefecturelevel regions in China experienced negative population growth by 2010, as a result of population floating and migration. Population natural decrease was observed in 8% of county-level regions in China in 2010. According to the medium-variant population projection, China's population growth would become negative after 2027. The negative growth of working-age population would be much earlier and more rapidly than that of total population in the first half of this century. The older population would grow rapidly during this period. Negative population growth is not only a matter of quantity, but also of structure, which is directly affected by fertility, mortality and age structure changes. The mutually reinforcing process might happen between negative population growth and ageing. 
Related Articles | Metrics
Identical Origin Point Ageing Path and Socio−Economic Impacts: A Multiple−Country #br# Comparison
Tao Tao,Wang Nanlin and Zhang Huiping
Population Research    2019, 43 (5): 28-42.  
Abstract312)      PDF (2507KB)(277)       Save

Through constructing identical origin point model, this article compares the ageing process of 9 countries since their exposure to the risk of being an ageing society and examines its social and economic impact among these countries. The study finds that whether fast or slow, population ageing keeps intensifying among selected countries. Over the past decade, Chinas ageing rate has been faster than that of Japan. The ageing of labor force in China, Japan, and Korea is predicted to reach a peak as high as 45% by 2035 and to remain this level for the rest of this century. After controlling the economic growth level, it turns out that population ageing does not necessarily increase health expenditures. Instead, the proportion of the elderly population aged 80 and above shows a significant positive correlation with the health expenditures in most countries. Impact of population ageing on the saving per capita shows no consistent patterns. In most countries, the male labor participation rate drops as the ageing level ascends. However, some countries may also witness a climb in female labor participation rate due to the effect of population ageing.

Related Articles | Metrics
Intergenerational Exchange,Internalization of Responsibility or Altruism?The Impact of Grandchild-caring on the Elderly’s Intention for Old-age Support
Tao Tao, Liu Wenli and Sun Mingtao
Population Research    2018, 42 (5): 56-67.  
Abstract376)      PDF (2245KB)(452)       Save
Using data from China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey in 2014,this paper examines the elderly’s intention for old-age support,the intergenerational relationship and the effects of grandchild care.The results show that:First,there exists selectivity in the care for grandchildren.The elderly who feel closer to their children are more willing to provide care for grandchildren.Second,grandchild care also affects the relationship between the elderly and their children in turn.As the intensity of care increases,the conflicts between the elderly and their children are increasing.However,these short-term conflicts will not significantly affect the elderly’s intention for old-age support.Third,grandchild care will affect the elderly’s intention for old-age support.Compared with those who provide low-intensity care,the elderly who provide high-intensity care are more likely to live with their children in the future.This suggests that the grandchild care is more of intergenerational exchanges and family responsibilities than a completely altruistic behaviour.Finally,intergenerational relationship has no significant mediating or moderating effect on the influence of grandchild care.
Related Articles | Metrics
Patterns and Determinants of Migrant Unemployment in China: An Analysis of Data of 2015 National One-Percent Population Sample Survey
Yang Fan, Du Shanshan and Tao Tao
Population Research    2018, 42 (4): 14-26.  
Abstract507)      PDF (281KB)(542)       Save
As the floating population grows rapidly and China's economic development enters the new normal,unemployment of the floating population has gradually aroused public concern.Based on the research framework of the push-pull theory of migration,this study examines the unemployment situation of the floating population in China using the data of the 1% sample survey of the national population in 2015.Logistic regression model is used to study the factors affecting the unemployment risk of the floating population.A growing trend of unemployment of the floating population has been observed.The unemployment rate of the floating population reached 4.9% in 2015.In addition to individual characteristics,factors related to the place of origin and destination,and the migration process also significantly affect the unemployment risk of the floating population.Therefore,policies addressing the issue of unemployment of the floating population need to incorporate migration policy with employment policy,improve availability of diversified jobs for the floating population,and enhance their capacity in job mobility across industries and occupations.
Related Articles | Metrics
Re-examining China's Provincial Socioeconomic Development and Fertility Change
Tao Tao,Jin Guangzhao,Yang Fan
Population Research    2017, 41 (6): 33-44.  
Abstract475)      PDF (1354KB)(520)       Save
This study explores the relationship between China??s provincial total fertility rate(TFR) calculated from census data and adjusted by scholars in 1982,1990,2000 and 2010 and the provincial human development index (HDI). China experienced rapid increase in the HDI and continuous decrease in the TFR at all provinces and shrinking regional disparities in both of them. The two variables are negatively correlated while the inhibition effect of HDI on TFR is gradually decreased. After dividing regions by different policy types,we find that the two still have negative correlation and without Showing a J-shape relation in different category of regions,although Shanghai,Beijing and Tianjin have reached the very high human development level which exceeds 0. 788 in 2010. Unlike some western developed countries,China??s fertility level does not turn to rise with the socioeconomic development. Without adjusting fertility policy,the fertility level of all the provinces would continue declining with the socioeconomic development. A timely releasing of fertility policy can effectively restrain further decline of TFR
Reference | Related Articles | Metrics
Determinants of Parenthood Attitude toward Adult Children’s Second Birth under the Two-Child Policy: The Case of Beijing
Tao Tao, Yang Fan, Zhang Xianling
Population Research    2016, 40 (3): 90-100.  
Abstract529)      PDF (181KB)(1475)       Save
This study aims at investigating parenthood attitude toward adult children’s second birth under the“two-child”policy based on the Beijing Empty Nest Family Survey in 2015.The survey shows that the elderly present high awareness rate of the“two-child”policy; old parents who support,oppose to,or hold the idea of non-interference to their married children’s second birth account for one third re- spectively; almost 70% of the elderly would support their adult children’s second birth through economic assistance or child care; utilitarian purposes,such as old age care,are no longer primary reasons for second birth; economic cost,concern about mothers’or baby’s health and lack of child care resources become the top three factors preventing second birth.Having a good relationship with adult children, good health condition and being currently married have a significantly positive effect on parenthood support- ive attitudes toward adult children’s second birth; open-minded idea on endowment,education and duration of the empty nest period significantly reduce the probability of the elderly to support children’s second birth; and no significant effect is found with gender,age,economic condition and preferable place for old age life.
Related Articles | Metrics
Selectivity,Tradition or Acculturation: The Effect of Migration on Son Preference of Rural Reproductive Women
Yang Fan, Tao Tao, Du Min
Population Research    2016, 40 (2): 50-62.  
Abstract419)      PDF (160KB)(1079)       Save

The large-scale population migration is changing the child-bearing concepts of rural women,and weakening the traditional son preference for children. This paper reviews relevant theories about the effect of migration on the child-bearing concepts,analyzes the survey data and compares the difference of son preference among rural reproductive women who never migrated and those who had migration experiences when controlling for the selection bias of migration.This paper further examines the effect of their experiences of migration with or without husband on son preference.Results indicate that there is a significant difference of son preference between rural women who don’ t have migration experience and those who have.On one hand,this difference is partly a result of the selectivity of migration; on the other hand,it is because migration modernizes the child-bearing concepts of rural women and weakens their son preference.However,the traditional culture of the outflow regions still influences the gender preference of rural women through families and communities.

Related Articles | Metrics
Couples’ Relative Occupational Position and Subjective Family Well-being
Tao Tao,Li Ding
Population Research    2015, 39 (3): 74-86.  
Abstract1650)      PDF (1401KB)(1257)       Save
Using couple-paired sample survey data collected by Beijing Academy of Social Construction in Renmin University of China, the article analyzes the relationship between subjective well-being and relative occupational position of couples from the perspectives of family rights and status theory and role conflict theory. The results show that the self-identified relative occupation relative position has significant influence on family well-being. Higher relative occupation status of husband is significantly associated with higher family well-being and better intergenerational relationships. Couples’ occupational relative position has both direct and indirect effect on family well-being. Comparing with other types of families, couples in the family with wife having relatively higher occupational position are significantly less happy, and the intergenerational relationships are worse. Wife’s satisfaction on her leisure and husband’s satisfaction on his work are positively associated with their happiness.
Related Articles | Metrics
An Exploration of Family Happiness Development Index
Tao Tao,Yang Fan,Zhang Huanjun,Zhao Menghan
Population Research    2014, 38 (1): 63-76.  
Abstract1389)      PDF (453KB)(2182)       Save
Utilizing data collected in the survey of China’s Family Happiness Development Index by Renmin University of China and China Population Welfare Foundation,this article explores the factors affecting the happiness of China’s families. There are four dimensions of the factors affecting family happiness:
income and housing estate are the most important factors in economic dimension; physical and mental health is the foundation of a happy family; higher education,better relationship and more leisure will increase the happiness level; better social security and social network will secure the family happiness. Differing from the existing Happiness Indexes which evaluate happiness from individual level or regional level,this article focuses on‘family’as the study object to construct the‘Family Happiness Index’to evaluate the capability of becoming happier instead of assessing the status of happiness. Based on the four dimensions,including economics,health,civilization and society,this index consists of 35 indicators with a combination of subjective and objective factors.
Related Articles | Metrics
Cited: Baidu(3)
Underreporting and Overreporting in China’s Sixth National Population Census
Tao Tao; Zhang Xianling
Population Research    2013, 37 (1): 42-53.  
Abstract3516)            Save
Related Articles | Metrics
The Impact of China’s Family Planning Policy on Demographic Transition
Tao Tao, Yang Fan
Population Research    2011, 35 (1): 103-112.  
Abstract3052)      PDF (249KB)(1976)       Save
This paper attempts to estimate how many births were averted in China by the family planning policy.Using country-level data from World Population Data Sheet from 1980 to 2008,regression models are constructed between economic,social and demographic variables from more than 140 countries without any family planning policy,total fertility rate(TFR) being the predicted variable.Different population trends are generated from population projections using estimated and actual TFR.Regression analysis yields a predicted TFR of about 2.5 in China in 2008 under the condition of no family planning policy.There were 458 million births were averted in China between 1972 and 2008 by the family planning policy,excluding the impact of economic and social development.
Related Articles | Metrics